Russia looks to be in disarray as Ukraine launches its counteroffensive.

Ukraine's much-anticipated counteroffensive appears imminent, and the way each side is preparing speaks volumes about their readiness. Kyiv's front lines are abuzz with vehicle movement and artillery strikes, and President Volodymyr Zelensky has assured a counteroffensive "will happen" while demurring on any exact start date. Moscow, on the other hand, is in the closing-time bar brawl stage of their war. After losing Kharkiv and Kherson, they have had at least seven months to ready the next likely target of Ukrainian attack: Zaporizhzhia. However, the last 72 hours have been most betrayed by Russia's lack of readiness, with the firing of the deputy defense minister in charge of logistics, Mikhail Mizintsev.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has not spelled out the dismissal of Aleksey Kuzmenkov, the "Butcher of Mariupol," as he is known. This does not satisfy the question of why Moscow is sending a message of disarray in the moments before its army faces Ukraine's counter-assault. Yevgeny Prigozhin's criticism of Russia's mercenary warlord, Wagner, suggests that his fighters are so low on ammunition that they may have to withdraw from Bakhmut, the strategically unimportant city they have squandered thousands of lives trying to take. Russia's eroding ammunition supplies were long known, but to suggest imminent failure just ahead of the counteroffensive smacks of a major bid to shift blame. The hours before Ukraine moves are shrinking and the extent of Moscow's internal indecision, rivalries and disunity only grows.