Washington Post: Intel leak reveals US scepticism over Ukrainian counteroffensive

Top secret documents warn of major shortfalls in Kiev’s forces and their ability to reclaim territory. Alleged leaked US intelligence documents paint a bleak picture for the much-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive, raising doubts about Kiev’s ability to field the manpower and ammunition needed to sustain major combat operations in the coming months. Files labeled ‘top secret’ reveal American reservations about the upcoming counter-attack, warning that a lack of troops and ammunition could mean that Ukraine will fall short of its ambitious goals to retake lost ground over the spring. A separate classified briefing prepared by the National Intelligence Council concluded that Kiev’s counter-offensive is unlikely to be as successful as operations last fall, which did result in some regained ground. Another leaked document cited by the Wall Street Journal also warned that Ukraine faces a “looming air defense crisis,” which could prevent its military from massing the frontline forces needed for the counteroffensive.

The assessment predicts that Kiev will have exhausted its supply of Buk air defense missiles and all of its S-300 ammunition by May 3, leaving its skies largely undefended. The Pentagon and Justice Department are probing the matter and a criminal investigation is underway to determine the source of the unauthorized disclosures. The document trove contains a wealth of information about US and NATO war planning in Ukraine, including timelines for training and arms deliveries, data on ammunition expenditures, the structure of Ukrainian combat units, estimated Russian and Ukrainian losses, and information regarding foreign special forces on the ground. Officials have declined to confirm the accuracy of their contents, saying only that they are investigating the leak.