Turkey's earthquake cost $34 billion. Erdogan may lose the election.

(CNN) ⸻ The devastating earthquake that hit Turkey on February 6 killed at least 45,000 people, rendered millions homeless across almost a dozen cities and caused immediate damage estimated at $34 billion. The indirect cost of the quake could be much higher, with the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation estimating the total cost at $84.1 billion, the lion's share of which would be for housing. Arda Tunca, an Istanbul-based economist at PolitikYol, said the economic disaster is unprecedented and could determine the course of presidential and parliamentary elections expected in mid-May. However, the cost to the country's GDP won't be as pronounced when compared to the 1999 earthquake in Izmit, which killed more than 17,000. The provinces most affected by the February 6 quake represent 15% of Turkey's population and contribute 9% of the nation's GDP, 11% of income tax and 14% of income from agriculture and fisheries. Economists do not expect a recessionary threat due to the earthquake, but there has been criticism of the country's preparedness for the disaster. How Turkey will rehabilitate its economy and provide for its newly homeless people is not yet known, but it could be pivotal in determining President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political fate.