A change in Turkish leadership may not mean the end of Turkish-Russian relations.

At the height of election campaigning and just three weeks before polls were set to open, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin inaugurated Turkey’s first nuclear plant in a virtual ceremony. The Akkuyu plant in Mersin province is the first in the world to be built, owned and operated by one company – that is Russia’s state atomic energy company Rosatom. This strengthened Turkey’s energy dependence on Moscow at a time when its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies were reducing such links to deprive Russia of leverage against them. The strengthening ties between Erdogan and Putin have caused jitters in the West, with some watching the upcoming elections with anticipation of a possible Erdogan exit. Erdogan has lashed out against the US Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake, calling the US diplomat’s visit a “shame” and warning that Turkey needs to “teach the US a lesson in this election.” Polls suggest a tight race between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, with the likelihood of the May 14 election going into a second ballot if no candidate wins Analysts have said that even if Erdogan is ousted in the polls, a foreign policy u-turn for Turkey is not a given.

While figures close to the opposition have indicated that if victorious, it would reorient Turkey back to the West, others say core foreign policy issues are likely to remain unchanged. Over the past two decades, Turkey has repositioned itself from a secular, Western-oriented nation to a more conservative, religiously oriented one. NATO member Turkey has strengthened its ties with Russia, and has caused a headache for NATO’s expansion plans by stalling the membership of Finland and Sweden. Turkey has also been useful to its Western allies under Erdogan, such as mediating a landmark grains export deal between Ukraine and Russia, and providing Ukraine with drones. If the opposition wins, the first thing it will do is mend fences with the West.