Erdogan's political destiny may be decided by a far-right nationalist leader.

Sinan Ogan, a fringe, ultranationalist Turkish politician, has become the most important figure in Turkish politics, potentially deciding President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political fate. Turkey’s Supreme Election Council (YSK) on Monday said neither Erdogan nor his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu received more than 50% of the votes required to become president, taking the race to a second round. Ogan, the third candidate, received 5.17%, enough to swing the runoff vote in favor of either of the candidates. Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul, said that Ogan is critical of both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, but that the majority of his voters are closer to president than his main rival. Berkay Mandiraci, a Turkey analyst at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group think tank, said that the momentum is in Erdogan’s favor, adding that opinion polls that suggested otherwise ahead of the vote failed to capture an undercurrent in favor of the ruling alliance.